Analysis of the dynamics of tourist flows in the city of Almaty and statistical forecasting (2019–2025)

Abstract

The article analyzes the dynamics and development trends of tourist flows in the city of Almaty for the period 2019–2025. The aim of the study is to identify patterns in the changes of tourist flows based on official statistical data and to forecast their medium-term development prospects. The methodological framework is based on the use of the Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The information base includes data from the Bureau of National Statistics, materials from the Almaty City Tourism Department, and international research studies. The calculation results demonstrate a stable recovery trend in tourist flows after the pandemic. According to the CAGR indicator, the average annual growth rate of tourist flows is 11.1 %, while the forecasted number of visitors for 2025 is estimated at 2.5–2.6 million people. The findings can serve as a scientific basis for tourism infrastructure planning, improvement of marketing strategies, and strengthening the city’s development as a competitive tourist destination.